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Featured matchups — Week 1
View allAround the league
Headlines link to their original source.
- 2026 Atlanta Falcons training camp: Latest intel, updates
Follow our daily updates from Falcons training camp, including intel on QBs, position battles and potential breakouts.
ATLTua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix JrSource: ESPN · Aug 1, 2026 12:34 PM
- Tracking 2026 NFL hold-ins: Robinson, Gibbs, Vea and Tuipulotu
Here is the latest on Falcons' Bijan Robinson, Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs, Bucs' Vita Vea and Chargers' Tuli Tuipulotu.
ATLDETTBBijan Robinson, Jahmyr GibbsSource: ESPN · Aug 1, 2026 12:22 PM
- Bills safety Gardner-Johnson carted off with leg injury
Bills safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson was carted to the locker room after suffering a lower-body injury during Saturday's training camp practice.
BUFCJ Gardner-JohnsonSource: ESPN · Aug 1, 2026 12:02 PM
- Sources: 49ers VP Paraag Marathe exits to focus on soccer clubs
49ers executive vice president of football operations Paraag Marathe is leaving the team after 25 years to focus full time on Leeds United and Rangers FC as well as other sports efforts, league sources told ESPN.
SFSource: ESPN · Aug 1, 2026 11:44 AM
- Rams' Sean McVay: No Aaron Donald update, but 'trending upwards'
Rams coach Sean McVay says he doesn't expect defensive tackle Aaron Donald to decide about coming out of retirement until after the team returns to its facility but noted that "things are going in the right direction."
LARAaron DonaldSource: ESPN · Aug 1, 2026 11:24 AM
- WR Tory Horton healthy after cracking tibia last season
Seahawks wide receiver Tory Horton says he sustained a crack in his tibia last season.
SEATory HortonSource: ESPN · Aug 1, 2026 11:02 AM
Team rating snapshot
View all| # | Team | Rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 1680 | 0-0 |
| 2 | JAX | 1627 | 0-0 |
| 3 | NE | 1627 | 0-0 |
| 4 | DEN | 1624 | 0-0 |
| 5 | HOU | 1624 | 0-0 |
| 6 | LAR | 1620 | 0-0 |
| 7 | BUF | 1593 | 0-0 |
| 8 | SF | 1591 | 0-0 |
How the model works
Our baseline model combines Elo-style team ratings, play-level efficiency (EPA, success rate, explosive-play rate), quarterback availability, injuries, rest, travel, and weather into a transparent, versioned probability estimate. Every factor is documented and every published projection is graded.
Read more →Latest analysis
View allanalysis
Rest and travel: what ten weeks of demo data says
Short weeks and long flights carry a measurable, but modest, cost in the model.
methodology
How we grade the model: Brier scores, calibration, and honesty
Every published projection is graded and archived. Here is exactly how the scoreboard works.
weekly preview
Week 11 model outlook: cold-weather variance arrives
Northern venues bring wind and cold into the projection picture for the first time this season.
Membership
Full probabilities, the scenario simulator, the historical explorer, model comparison, CSV exports, and information-change alerts.
The free weekly signal
One email per week: the model’s view of the slate, key rating movements, and what changed. No hype, no noise.
Gridiron Signal is a research and analytics product. Model projections are statistical estimates, never certainties. Never treat analytics as financial advice.