Week 11 model outlook: cold-weather variance arrives

The model enters Week 11 with ten weeks of graded results behind it. Three storylines stand out.

1. Weather starts to matter. Four outdoor venues project sub-zero kickoff temperatures with 25+ km/h wind. The model trims projected totals in those games and widens the uncertainty band.

2. Quarterback availability. Two teams list their starters as questionable. Our probability estimates carry an explicit availability penalty, and the scenario simulator lets members test both branches.

3. Rating convergence. After ten weeks, the Elo spread between the top and bottom quartile has stabilized. Early-season overreaction has regressed, exactly as the methodology page describes.

As always: projections are estimates, not guarantees. Data quality indicators appear on every matchup page.