Rest and travel: what ten weeks of demo data says

Situational factors are the least glamorous part of a projection model and among the most stable. In our factor accounting, a Thursday short week costs roughly a point, a cross-country flight with three time zones costs a bit more than one, and a bye-week rest edge is worth just under one. These are deliberately conservative weights — the methodology page documents each one, and the scenario simulator lets members test how much they move a given matchup.